Monday, 14 December 2009

Will a deal at Copenhagen cause markets to slump?

Probably, since the inherent weakness in western consumer capitalism is that it requires consumption and growth to exist.

This is in conflict with halting climate change which requires conservation NOT consumption.

Politicians are trying to square the circle by having consumption driven by non (or low) carbon fuels, but this is unrealistic, since we simply don't have the time(must be done in next 5 years to stop CO2 going past tipping point) to build all the nuclear power (the only known low carbon technology that will work and generate sufficient energy for our needs) stations needed around the world.

Carbon offsetting is the other scheme to square the circle - but essentially it's very shaky since to work it would need to be policed on an international scale and the carbon caps imposed would need to be draconian, thus dramatically diminishing businesses capacity to grow.

So if we are to survive as a species we need to revert to a 1940's lifestyle in the West immediately and this austerity will cause business to decline rapidly and markets to slump.

Austerity has already started to a degree and aggregate demand is dropping, the spotlight being shone on the problem by the Copenhagen summit will accelerate this as more people think through how they need to change their lifestyles so that their children and grandchildren will survive.

Any Interim Managers who can see another way out of this bind - which will work, will be able to demand very high daily fees indeed for their solutions as they advise governments around the world!