Interim Consultancy

Interim consultancy is now becoming big business.

Companies are finding that they can employ an Interim Manager more cost effectively than a consultant and whilst the Interim is running a project or managing a team etc. which is their 'business as usual' function, they give valuable consultancy advice along the way. So the client get's two for the price of one!

And more importantly, the Interim consultancy is founded in real life experiences, rather than business school text book theory.

Interim consultancy is the way to beat the recession for many companies in 2009.

Growth & Greed change to Neutrality & Need part 1

So- the economic pundits and politicians are not sure whether the depression is getting better or worse. But surely these guys should know - they're the experts.

Not so - their problem is that the models they use pay little regard to behavioural economics, prefering to focus on 'hard' data rather than 'soft' intuitive concepts. They also rely on inductive thinking, always looking at what happened last time to gain insights, rather than using deductive thinking, which is much harder, to predict what might happen.

But their biggest problem is that they've talked themselves into calling what's happening a recession, rather than it's true name ie. depression.

Depressions induce major structural and policy changes, recessions merely rely on a bit of 'trimming' round the margins of policy.

Depressions bring about a sea change in attitudes because personal values change and that's what's happening now.

It's a huge structural change in thinking that's taking place- Obama spotted it - that's why he used change as his signature during the election campaign for the White House.

The western world's value systems are changing from growth and greed to neutrality and need. Interim managers who are skilled in change management could help businesses and government adjust to this new order.

More on this later.....

Global Warming needs Interim Managers

Why you ask? Well let's face it global warming is here to stay and no thinking individual believes we're not already past the point of no return with global temperature set to rise at least 3'C over the next few decades and probably much more.

So wild seas rising to consume most of the southeast, eastern and central England (just think what that will do to your house price) are certain. What we need now are Interims (who make excellent project managers) employed in their thousands by the government to plan the implementation of significant sea defences to protect the endemic population.

By the way- don't expect HMG to do anything about our carbon outputs and halt the 3'+ rise, despite the talk most folk in the UK have not woken up to the armaggedon looming for humans and even those that have are disinclined to change their lifestyle by the massive amount needed today to stop the 3'C plus rise. So they are not pushing the government to do something - indeed it is all of us that has to 'do something' - NOW, not the government.

We would need to immediately start living like we did in the 1940's to achieve the 80% reduction in carbon emissions needed by 2050 (only 40 years away - many of us may still be here!!) ie no car, no flying, no central heating, no electrical gadgets in the kitchen etc.

Don't expect technology to save us - it won't. Relying on wind farms, photo cells and solar panels is as likely to save our annihilation as a species as the boom in China (if it exists) is likely to save us from another depression. It won't happen.

Besides, the carbon emitted to build and maintain this technology almost ensures that the 3'C will be hit!...think about it.

No - let's accept were going to be flooded and millions in southern Europe and further afield will be displaced and board ships to travel (and try to settle) in England and northern Europe.

Put Interim Managers to work today to help mitigate the inevitable crisis which is tomorrow!

The coming shape of things to come

Yes - the same dumb clucks who didn't see the depression coming, can't see the shape of what's to come.

At first they thought it was going to be V shaped, Ben Bernanke thought it might be over by Christmas and even Tim G has said he can see growth coming.

Meanwhile Gordon thought he'd saved the world in the Spring and the mainsteam newspapers reported green shoots everywhere.

However recently the V seems to have adopted the pig flu strategy of mutating and now many think the V will become a W or a WW. Make no mistake this is a y shaped depression.

The tail of the y is what's coming next - you heard it here first.

Thankfully Interim Managers are more competent than those running the show, otherwise Interims would be fired soon after they started.

Unfortunately our democracy does not give us that option!!

What's this CPI and RPI - down!!!

So the authorities have underestimated this depression, prices are still falling, but give them time - they'll keep printing money, taking on more debt to fund mindless jobs in the public sector, funding good works that no one wants and bailouts to companies that were so big and professional they didn't see that their costs were too high and that they were going bust - until one day they get it right...and the country goes completely broke. Then the bond markets will drive up interest rates, sterling will collapse and the depression will deepen.

You didn't really expect that those who didn't see the depression coming ie Brown, King et al., would to be able to put it right - did you?

Credit expansion retires with baby boomers

Sixty years of credit expansion (and it's close accomplice inflation) - driven by the post war baby boomers- is now retiring with them. From now on credit contraction (and it's accomplice deflation) will be the zeitgeist.

Conspicuous consumer consumption is giving way to a more spartan way of living as the 40 somethings take control of society.

Soon debt will be a dirty word and taking credit to live beyond your income will be as popular as smoking in public. As job security diminishes, taking long term loans for houses etc. will disappear.

Prices will fall ...but more on that in a later blog on energy and houses.

What does all this mean for Interim Management and business, well, only businesses that supply 'needs' will prosper, those supplying 'wants' watch out. The latter should now be ridding themselves of permanent employees and taking on Interim Managers, who are much more flexible as these businesses decline and can be exited with ease when the time comes.

By the way - anyone still believe the green shoots story (ridiculed in an earlier blog)?

Even the Office for National Statistics now says talk of recovery is missplaced, but no doubt those with a vested interest will still see these shoots ie, central bankers, government ministers, estate agents, etc.....believe them at your peril!!